Hydrogen Fuel in Aviation: Quantifying Risks for a Sustainable Future

Özet

The aviation industry, responsible for approximately 2.5–3.5% of global greenhouse gas emissions, faces increasing pressure to adopt sustainable energy solutions. Hydrogen, with its high gravimetric energy density and zero carbon emissions during use, has emerged as a promising alternative fuel to support aviation decarbonization. However, its large-scale implementation remains hindered by cryogenic storage requirements, safety risks, infrastructure adaptation, and economic constraints. This study aims to identify and evaluate the primary technical and operational risks associated with hydrogen utilization in aviation through a comprehensive Monte Carlo Simulation-based risk assessment. The analysis specifically focuses on four key domains—hydrogen leakage, cryogenic storage, explosion hazards, and infrastructure challenges—while excluding economic and lifecycle aspects to maintain a technical scope only. A 10,000-iteration simulation was conducted to quantify the probability and impact of each risk factor. Results indicate that hydrogen leakage and explosion hazards represent the most critical risks, with mean risk scores exceeding 20 on a 25-point scale, whereas investment costs and technical expertise were ranked as comparatively low-level risks. Based on these findings, strategic mitigation measures—including real-time leak detection systems, composite cryotank technologies, and standardized safety protocols—are proposed to enhance system reliability and support the safe integration of hydrogen-powered aviation. This study contributes to a data-driven understanding of hydrogen-related risks and provides a technological roadmap for advancing carbon-neutral air transport.